The Australian express delivery industry is experiencing structural growth. The industry's revenue is expected to reach 14.5 billion Australian dollars by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% from 2019 to 2024. The following is a core analysis of the growth trends based on the latest industry dynamics and data:
1. E-commerce drives the continuous expansion of parcel business
1.1 E-commerce penetration rate and消费升级
Market size： In 2024， online consumption in Australia reached 69 billion US dollars， increasing by 12%. It is expected that the revenue of the e-commerce market will reach 42.22 billion US dollars (approximately 307.51 billion RMB) in 2025， with 76.3% of the population using online shopping.
E-commerce cross-border explosion： Chinese goods account for 41% of Australia's cross-border import volume. The storage volume of Cainiao's Sydney warehouse increased by 170% in January-February 2025， achieving 2-3-day delivery in east coast cities through the "pre-stocking" model， which is 5-7 days faster than traditional direct mail. Temu sellers increased the conversion rate of orders by 18% and reduced the negative review rate by 62% through overseas warehouses.
1.2 Increase in parcel volume and revenue
Business volume surge： In the first half of the fiscal year 2025， Australia Post's parcel volume reached 262 million pieces， increasing by 3% compared to the previous year. Cross-border parcels accounted for 35% of the total volume. In November-December 2024， Australia Post delivered 103 million parcels， setting a new record， with the highest daily delivery volume exceeding 3 million pieces.
Revenue structure optimization： Parcel revenue accounts for more than 60% of Australia Post's total revenue. In the first half of the fiscal year 2025， parcel revenue reached 3.53 billion Australian dollars， increasing by 6% compared to the previous year.
2. Technological innovation reshapes industry efficiency
2.1 Automation and intelligent scheduling
Processing center upgrade： YTO Melbourne processing center introduced automated sorting equipment， with a peak daily processing capacity of 100，000 pieces， doubling the production capacity during peak seasons； Cainiao's Sydney warehouse increased picking efficiency by 5% through an intelligent sorting system， with an accuracy rate of 99.8%.
Smart route planning： YTO's AI scheduling system optimizes delivery routes， with the accuracy rate in core areas exceeding 95%； Kiva provided a robot warehouse for eStore Logistics， increasing order processing efficiency by 4 times and reducing logistics costs by 30%.
2.2 Unmanned aircraft and IoT applications
Last-mile breakthrough： Wing Company has piloted unmanned aircraft delivery in 26 urban areas in Melbourne and Canberra， covering categories such as fast food and medicines. In 2021， the delivery volume exceeded 140，000 times， and plans to expand to more cities in 2025.
Parcel tracking upgrade： Platforms such as 17TRACK support 2，682 transportation companies for parcel tracking. Users can view the logistics status in real time through the APP， and abnormal parcels are automatically alerted through IoT sensors.
3. Green transformation and sustainable development
3.1 Environmental protection policies drive change
Carbon neutrality target： Australia Post plans to achieve 60% electric delivery vehicles by 2030， with an electric vehicle fleet size of 4，700 units by 2025， accounting for 30%； DHL launched the GoGreen Plus service， using sustainable aviation fuel to reduce carbon emissions.
Circular economy practice： Sendle established the "Future Fleet Fund" to support carriers in replacing electric vehicles， aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2040； DHL piloted circular delivery bags， offering a shipping fee discount to users who return items using the original packaging. Data Disclosure: Australia Post attaches a "Carbon Footprint Report" in the after-sales emails, showing the carbon emission data of return shipment and providing "Carbon Neutrality Options"; Sendle achieves 100% carbon neutrality transportation through carbon offset projects.
IV. Regional Collaboration and Network Optimization
1. Differentiated Layout in Core Cities and Remote Areas
Core Cities Dominance: East Coast cities such as Sydney and Melbourne contribute over 70% of the business volume, and Tongtong and DHL achieve "Next-Day Delivery", with an on-time delivery rate exceeding 95%.
Remote Areas Deepening: Australia Post adopts the "New Delivery Mode" (NDM) to shorten the delivery cycle in remote areas to 4 days, and Toll Priority collaborates with local logistics providers to optimize the end network, with the additional fee being 15% lower than that in ordinary areas.
2. Deepening Overseas Warehouse Strategy
Dual Warehouse Linkage Model: Sydney and Melbourne's dual overseas warehouses achieve 2-3-day delivery across Australia through "Sea-Air Combined Transport + Land Direct Delivery", with the inventory turnover rate of a certain 3C brand increasing by 65% and the logistics cost reducing by 28%. Cainiao's Sydney warehouse integrates intelligent sorting equipment, supporting automatic capture of orders from multiple platforms, and improving processing efficiency by 40%.
V. Policy and Competitive Landscape Evolution
1. Release of RCEP Benefits
Cross-border Efficiency Enhancement: The cross-border dedicated line (such as SpeedPAK) has shortened the delivery time to 10-14 days, and the port of Shandong has collaborated with Australian enterprises to reduce the transportation cost of iron ore by 15%.
Compliance and Transparency: Australia Post regularly communicates with the ACCC to ensure that the after-sales policies comply with the "Consumer Rights Protection Law", and releases the "After-Sales Quality White Paper" to disclose data such as complaint rates and handling times.
2. Intensified Market Competition
International Giants' Layout: DHL and FedEx focus on high-velocity services, while Tongtong and SF Express capture the market through local operations. Tongtong's on-time delivery rate in Australia has exceeded 95%.
E-commerce Penetration: Amazon and eBay penetrate the logistics market through FBA and Fulfillment services, forcing traditional logistics providers to upgrade their services. Australia Post collaborates with Salesforce to develop a technical platform and provide customized services.
VI. Future Growth Engines and Challenges
1. Growth Drivers
Technological Deepening: AI and IoT further penetrate, and Tongtong plans to achieve full Australia-wide intelligent dispatch coverage by 2025, expanding drone delivery to more cities.
Regional Collaboration: RCEP and the dual overseas warehouse model have driven the growth of cross-border parcel volume between China and Australia by over 25%, and it is expected that the proportion of cross-border e-commerce will reach 40% in 2025.
2. Core Challenges
Cost Pressure: The delivery cost in remote areas is high (such as Toll Priority's additional fee being 1.5 times that of ordinary areas), and the loss of letter business forces Australia Post to apply for price increases.
Labor Shortage: The shortage of delivery personnel affects the stability of services during peak seasons, and Tongtong and other enterprises alleviate the pressure through intelligent dispatching.
Summary
The Australian express industry is currently in a critical stage of technology-driven, green transformation, and regional collaboration. The industry's revenue is expected to reach 14.5 billion Australian dollars in 2025. E-commerce and technology are the core drivers. Australia Post maintains its leading position through its state-owned network and infrastructure investment, while international and Chinese logistics providers seize market share through local innovation. In the future, technological deepening (such as AI, drones), green transformation (carbon neutrality, circular packaging), and regional collaboration (RCEP, overseas warehouses) will be the core growth drivers, while enterprises need to address the challenges of cost pressure and intensified competition. Consumers can expect more efficient and sustainable delivery services, while logistics providers need to strike a balance between efficiency and compliance in order to achieve long-term competitiveness.